askjesse
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Pennsylvania Primary
Today is the long awaited Pennsylvania democratic primary.
I think it is funny how Clinton (who wants to make any win seem big) and the media (who wants to cover the drama till the DNC) has portrayed it. Even though Obama has never been expected to do great in PA, and Clinton can't win big enough for it to matter later, this is THE big event according to the media.
When I estimated the outcome of the democratic primaries to May 20th (at which point I think no argument for Clinton staying in the race can be made), I believe I gave Clinton 95 of the 158 PA delegates (the others are superdelegates). This is probably more generous than most people have been, but I believe that she can pull that off in PA. It is pretty much everywhere else that I think she will fail to pull of a big win, and many of the remaining states she will "lose" to Obama.
Basically, today will once again decide nothing.
But it will be fun to watch.
UPDATE:
9:00pm
The first numbers are coming in, and Clinton is the projected winner. However, the margin is as of now much more narrow than I had predicted, and already they are saying that based on this, Hillary will probably go on.
I was looking over the numbers in Indiana and North Carolina, and I think that Obama is going to win more delegates there than I initially predicted as well, making this even more hopeless for Clinton. Combine that with her campaign being out of money... it isn't looking good. The question at this point is... will her win here get her more money?
I think it is funny how Clinton (who wants to make any win seem big) and the media (who wants to cover the drama till the DNC) has portrayed it. Even though Obama has never been expected to do great in PA, and Clinton can't win big enough for it to matter later, this is THE big event according to the media.
When I estimated the outcome of the democratic primaries to May 20th (at which point I think no argument for Clinton staying in the race can be made), I believe I gave Clinton 95 of the 158 PA delegates (the others are superdelegates). This is probably more generous than most people have been, but I believe that she can pull that off in PA. It is pretty much everywhere else that I think she will fail to pull of a big win, and many of the remaining states she will "lose" to Obama.
Basically, today will once again decide nothing.
But it will be fun to watch.
UPDATE:
9:00pm
The first numbers are coming in, and Clinton is the projected winner. However, the margin is as of now much more narrow than I had predicted, and already they are saying that based on this, Hillary will probably go on.
I was looking over the numbers in Indiana and North Carolina, and I think that Obama is going to win more delegates there than I initially predicted as well, making this even more hopeless for Clinton. Combine that with her campaign being out of money... it isn't looking good. The question at this point is... will her win here get her more money?
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